The American Chemical Industry Council (ACC) forecast last week that the output of US chemical products (excluding pharmaceutical chemicals) will decline by 8.7% this year compared to 2008. In December last year, the agency’s forecast for this year’s output was still only down 3.1%. The reason why the production expectation was drastically lowered was due to the deepening impact of the financial crisis on the chemical industry.
In fact, the dramatic decline in chemical production in the United States has started since last year. The latest statistics show that in 2008, the output of US chemical products actually decreased by 6.3% compared with the previous year, and the decline was twice that of the forecast value of December last year.
According to Kevin Swift, chief economist of ACC, the situation faced by the US chemical industry this year is even less optimistic. Even the most powerful pharmaceutical industry in this industry will fall into a recession. It is expected that the output of pharmaceutical chemicals in the United States will decline slightly in 2009. 0.7%, and in 2008, US pharmaceutical chemicals increased slightly by 0.7%. Among all the products, the decline in basic chemicals will be most obvious, and it is expected that the decline will reach 12.5% ​​in 2009.
Swift said that the latest statistics show that at the end of last year, it was correct to predict that the US chemical industry would not be able to get out of the trough in the first half of this year, but the decline was larger than expected. He said that the continuous deterioration of the economic environment, the declining demand for terminals, and the continuous reduction of inventory by customers indicate that the crisis continues. The U.S. Department of Labor announced in early March that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to its highest level in 25 years, reaching 8.1% in February this year. This is a clear sign that the U.S. economic recession has further deepened.
Swift expects that the US chemical industry may move out of the drop channel later this year, when the U.S. federal economic stimulus package will begin to take effect. He said that the implementation of a huge amount of economic stimulus plans in various countries around the world will promote the recovery of demand and the global economy will also enter a recovery path.
Although it is still difficult to quantitatively predict the impact of economic stimulus programs, the ACC pointed out that for every $1,000 spent on non-residential construction projects, $160 to $230 is spent on chemicals. The expenditure on energy efficiency projects such as wind turbines and solar cells may have a greater driving effect on chemical demand.
In fact, the dramatic decline in chemical production in the United States has started since last year. The latest statistics show that in 2008, the output of US chemical products actually decreased by 6.3% compared with the previous year, and the decline was twice that of the forecast value of December last year.
According to Kevin Swift, chief economist of ACC, the situation faced by the US chemical industry this year is even less optimistic. Even the most powerful pharmaceutical industry in this industry will fall into a recession. It is expected that the output of pharmaceutical chemicals in the United States will decline slightly in 2009. 0.7%, and in 2008, US pharmaceutical chemicals increased slightly by 0.7%. Among all the products, the decline in basic chemicals will be most obvious, and it is expected that the decline will reach 12.5% ​​in 2009.
Swift said that the latest statistics show that at the end of last year, it was correct to predict that the US chemical industry would not be able to get out of the trough in the first half of this year, but the decline was larger than expected. He said that the continuous deterioration of the economic environment, the declining demand for terminals, and the continuous reduction of inventory by customers indicate that the crisis continues. The U.S. Department of Labor announced in early March that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to its highest level in 25 years, reaching 8.1% in February this year. This is a clear sign that the U.S. economic recession has further deepened.
Swift expects that the US chemical industry may move out of the drop channel later this year, when the U.S. federal economic stimulus package will begin to take effect. He said that the implementation of a huge amount of economic stimulus plans in various countries around the world will promote the recovery of demand and the global economy will also enter a recovery path.
Although it is still difficult to quantitatively predict the impact of economic stimulus programs, the ACC pointed out that for every $1,000 spent on non-residential construction projects, $160 to $230 is spent on chemicals. The expenditure on energy efficiency projects such as wind turbines and solar cells may have a greater driving effect on chemical demand.
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